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Fort Collins, CO | No, not necessarily bearish. While the down is "more likely," the up is "more impactful." That is why the mode and median are below the average, which should always equal the current futures price (i.e. the market's best guess at the weighted "fair-value" price given all possible future outcomes).
I've discussed one likely cause for this phenomenon before in an article on risk premiums:
https://www.quartziteriskmanagement.com/risk-premiums
Thanks for asking, and I'm happy to answer any more questions you might have. | |
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