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SC KS | Crude has taking a beating since last Wed May 29th (July contract down $9! at one point). OPEC announced less than expected measures to curtail production. It seems this downturn has been more sentiment driven vs fundamental. We're heading into seasonal strength as well as continued geo-political unknowns. As stated previously markets the last week have been risk-off. It appears stocks have corrected course, so we'll see if other commodities follow suit.
We're at long-term support in the $72 range with lots more demand down to $65/bbl. If this is breached, then watch out $55; however, I continue to be more bullish than bearish at the moment. How I view the chart it appears we are due to bounce back $90 (although you might be able to make the case for descending triangle for bearish).
My odds are 75% for crude reaching $90 vs $60 at 25%. Risk/reward is to upside to me. If crude can show strength, that should help other commodities as well.
 (agtalk_2024_CLN24_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_06_04_2024 (full).png)
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 agtalk_2024_CLN24_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_06_04_2024 (full).png (160KB - 154 downloads)
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crude price expectation
