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The USDA can KMA
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NEIAAG
Posted 6/20/2024 22:51 (#10781775 - in reply to #10781734)
Subject: RE: The USDA can KMA


fatan sassy - 6/20/2024 22:05

NEIAAG - 6/20/2024 09:48

t rock - 6/20/2024 09:33

Sorry Bro, you have a pollyannish view of USDA and their publishing incomplete or misleading numbers. There are some great people that work there no doubt, but it is a bloated gov institution with many facets, one facet that at times boots it is the stats on forecasting inventories, unlike forecasting yields, inventories exist already and are not speculative in reality. So, if you can't be accurate due to a host of reasons, most of which are outside of the USDA's control, such as farmers lack of responding to survey's... then don't put out incomplete data with known deficientness as fact.


Regardless of their competence or lack their of, my point is and remains whatever they publish was just the event assigned to what price was gonna do anyway.

Take care and good luck.



Market action prior to and upon release of reports destroys your premise.

Good luck and good day.


Oh? Could you tell me what is special about market action prior to and upon the release of the reports that can't happen any other time?

The reports can be used by a large entity to push price in a direction that they already have accumulated a position for. It can also be used to enable a large entity to put on a position because the extra volume available from people chasing the news release provides both camouflage, and the volume to accumulate the position. For instance, if a country placed a large order, it takes a lot of work for the exporter to offset the risk in the market while not moving it against themselves. But the volume is available to do this quicker after the report has been released especially if it happened to be a report release opposite of what they are trying to do. These can be done at other times too but report days are ideal for this since the process can be truncated significantly and there will be a reason assigned by the end of the day by all the market pundants. The reason will be wrong, as only those involved, really know what really happened .It's also not unheard of that someone is pushing the market in the days and hours prior to the actual release since people have stepped to the sidelines in anticipation of the release. This lack of volume makes this process easier as well. Other than that, whatever price bar occurs on report day is also scattered all over a price chart as a computer algorithm would quickly prove. I am all ears if you see something else I might possibly be missing.

Take care
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