|
| Below is a chart that shows the past 10 years of price changes the day of the June acre report.
As you can see can be a MAJOR market mover.
2023:
Corn: -34
Beans: +78
2022:
Corn: -34
Beans: -20
2021:
Corn: +25
Beans: +90
2020:
Corn: +12
Beans: +18
2019:
Corn: -20
Beans: +12
We typically do not see acres come in lower from March to June for corn. (Chart below)
We have only seen them lower essentially 3 times.
Beans on the other hand have been a mixed bag.
We have only seen both fall one time.
While we have seen both raised 4 times.
Usually we see one higher and one lower, or pretty much unchanged from March.
Estimates for Friday:
Corn: 90.353 vs March 90.036
Beans: 86.753 vs March 86.510
Lastly. Acres do tend to surprise. We have landed outside of the trade range 4 of past 5 years in beans. 3 of the past 5 years in corn.
Range for Friday:
Corn: 89 - 91.3
Beans: 85.5 - 87.5
The estimates for soybeans have been way too high the past 5 years in a row.
There have only been 3 times where the trade guess was too low for bean acres. (Chart below)
We go over our entire USDA preview and some things to watch in todays update for those interested here: https://txt.so/PpEARL
(Price change chart from @WalkSquawk on Twitter. Bean trade bias chart from Karen Braun)
 (IMG_3305 (full).JPG)
 (Teal Modern Vertical Bar Chart Graph (12) (full).png)
 (IMG_3266 (full).PNG)
 (IMG_3317 (full).JPG)
Attachments
----------------
 IMG_3305 (full).JPG (254KB - 116 downloads)
Teal Modern Vertical Bar Chart Graph (12) (full).png (65KB - 210 downloads)
IMG_3266 (full).PNG (48KB - 185 downloads)
IMG_3317 (full).JPG (40KB - 124 downloads)
| |
|
Some history for June acre report. Can be major market mover
