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| Repeat of 2014 or counter seasonal rally?
Seasonally, yes the majority of the time corn goes lower from here.
Many people are pointing out the fact that this year is very similar to 2014 in terms of price pattern thus far. Which they are somewhat similar so far.
We also have the argument that 2010 was like 2020, 2011 like 2021, and so on. (Below is a 2013 vs 2023 chart for reference).
In 2014, we didn’t get that major summer weather rally scare either. Instead we got about $1.00 rally in March & April and it was about this time where we started falling much lower.
Exactly 10 years ago on June 26th, 2014 we were also trading exactly where we are today in Dec corn.
In 2014 on the June stocks report we dropped over -20 cents. We continued lower and by mid-July we were at $3.80 and our harvest low that year was $3.18.
I am not saying 2014 is impossible..
However, one could also argue a more likely scenario could be 2010 or 2020…
In 2014 we didn’t have the wet spring issues, the floods to the west and dryness to the east.
No year is like the other, but 2010 was one of those years where the wet implications did not show up until later in the year. (Although 2010 was WAYYY wetter across entire corn belt in the summer. Whereas this year was a much much smaller area).
More importantly in 2010 the sky was falling.
We had made new lows the day of the USDA report, then all of the sudden the USDA dropped the stocks by 300 million bushels. Limit up here we came and we didn't look back for several years.
Then we have 2020, which was more of a demand driven rally that kept prices elevated a few years.
What’s everyone else think?
2010, 2014, 2020, or complete direction of its own?
(All charts below)
 (IMG_3274 (full).PNG)
 (IMG_3275 (full).PNG)
 (IMG_3277 (full).PNG)
 (ZCZ24_builder_12617_0_25491 2 (full).PNG)
 (IMG_3278 (full).PNG)
Attachments
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 IMG_3274 (full).PNG (48KB - 114 downloads)
IMG_3275 (full).PNG (46KB - 116 downloads)
IMG_3277 (full).PNG (51KB - 113 downloads)
ZCZ24_builder_12617_0_25491 2 (full).PNG (52KB - 114 downloads)
IMG_3278 (full).PNG (62KB - 109 downloads)
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Is 2024 repeat of 2014?
