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| WHEAT in 2024 with 47.2 million total planted acres and 38.785 harvested (82.11%) and a 50.0 yield (on higher HRW production) = 1.939 billion bushel (1.875 in June report) or a MOSTLY NEUTRAL report. Pre-report estimated at around 47.5 million acres with a range from 47.0 to 49.0.
CORN, 2024 Planted acres of 91.5 million acres - up 1.2 million from the June 12 estimate times harvested acres of 83.438 (91.2%) times a 178 yield (down on losses from flood damage and nitrogen losses plus a hotter July 2024 forecast by some) = 14.850 billion bushel (14.860 in the June 12th report) for a SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL report if you use the 178 yield vs. 181. Pre-report estimated at around 90.3 million acres with a range from 89.0 to 91.25.
SORGHUM, 2024 Planned acres of 6.405 million acres with harvested at 5.39 million (84.16%) times a 69.3 yield = 375 million bushel vs. 388 million in the June 12th report for a NEUTRAL report.
SOYBEANS 2024 at 86.1 million acres planted (down 400,000 from March) with harvested at 85.261 million (99.03%) times a 52 yield is 4.435 billion bushel vs. 4.450 in the June 12th report for a slightly POSITIVE report. Pre-report estimated at just under 87.0 million acres with a range from 85.5 to 87.75.
I looked at the 2023 July crop report and in it they showed 23/24 U.S. corn carryout rising to 2.262 billion bushel with a $4.80 average price after a drop from 181.5 in June 2023 report to a 177.5 on yield vs. this year when we may see carryout rise to no higher than this same 2.2 billion carryout in the Jul 2024 report - even with the higher than expected stocks. Looking at SEP 23 corn futures we were trading at $5.46 on 7-20 and $4.88 on 8-17 last year with over a 2.2 billion carryout shown in both of the crop reports so while the price trend was down it was not based on carryout levels. We rallied around $.60 to the $5.55 area on SEP 23 corn futures just before the June 2023 acreage report vs. falling into this year's report by around ($.60) on SEP 24 corn futures.
Some may say that we have a greater exportable world supply this year vs. a year ago - WRONG - according to the June 12th WASDE the Brazil+Argentina+Ukaine production in the 24/25 marketing year will be down 1.8 MMT or around 70 million bushel from last year's level. That is on top of 250-500 million bushel less available here in the USA depending on what yield you use. This is using the WASDE production levels that are around 300-450 million higher than what some other South American estimates were in the June 12th report.
The dollar was valued at $103.40 on 8-17-23 vs. $105.55 today so this will hamper export sales a little bit and offsets the lower available alternative supply from the three nations shown above.
My closing comment is that the report's today are not fundamentally all that negative vs. June 12th WASDE figures so turn your attention to charts and pivot points for accessing the future of prices. One of my historical tools called for an average move down from a 6-24 SEP 24 corn price of $4.40 to the $3.94 area (we hit $3.995 today) with a historical 13 year (6-24-2010 to 8-28-2022) average high move on SEP 24 corn to $4.84 - so we will see if this range holds or not.
Chartist thoughts on where support and rally potential may exist would be appreciated.
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2024 Acreage report thoughts
