northern edge of north central Missouri | SoDak Farms - 6/29/2024 14:38
It’s not really that luck though. If one put a full year calendar up on the wall and blindly threw darts and the days you hit you sold and those days ended up being good times to sell, that’d be luck. Recognizing we were in a downtrend market, good rains being predicted on the rain maps in large area of high grain production that had been dry and hot, and knowing typically we slide steeply down after the June report, that isn’t really luck. It’s a bear market right now, and we’ve seen many times in the June report where neutral to even slightly bullish info can be released and we still skid. That’s why that graph I posted looks the way it does over various periods of time.
With that said, the market can still flip green as more information becomes known as we progress through the season. Thats why I like hedges, I can lift and reenter when the market changes versus sales where you get locked in.
That’s called playing the odds. Still requires luck to guess the exact day, even hour, even minute.
I’ve workers at it diligently. I’ve paid for marketing advice. I’ve done every strategy imaginable.
Basis is a guess and I guess wrong a lot.
Government reports require guessing and that’s a fools game.
Those are two big components to pricing grain at the exact right time.
I’ve seen basis range from -10 to +15 in the last 30 days. And it hasn’t correlated to futures price at all.
When I’ve sold well it’s been luck. When market tanks while I sit frozen it’s luck.
If seasonals were so easy the market would be predictable and it most certainly is not.
Easy to say. What day did you decide was the day to price seasonally speaking. Now show me that day is the winner consistently, it isn’t.
I will never claim after I make a good sale that it was because I knew what I was doing.
For me it’s luck. For you it’s talent/knowledge and skill.
Great |
Corn entering 2014-2020 levels? Or will old resistance turn to new support?
