West of Mpls MN about 50 miles on Hwy 12 | The recent flooded acres are only a very small part of the less than record and/or APH yield potential story that has been unfolding in MN since April this growing season.
The first pass in the spring be it tillage or planting, is the first step towards attaining record and/or APH yield potential. Were there "perfect" tillage/planting/weather/dates/conditions anywhere in the USA this spring? How about "perfect" after planting weather conditions?
When step one is screwed up even slightly, crop yield potential has to play "catch up" starting from day one and will have to continue to play "catch up" with near "perfect" growing the entire growing season to reach record and/or APH yield potential. And the bigger the first step screw up, the longer it takes for yield potential to catch up and it becomes less likely crop yield potential will ever catch up...especially with less than "perfect" growing conditions. And when step one is screwed up so bad that there is a better than 50/50 chance there will be a fall crop insurance claim the day of planting, and with crop prices at/below cost of production at record/APH yield potential, what incentive is there to throw good money after bad to produce more bushels other than ego?
Ending yield and stock numbers will be whatever the USDA want the numbers to be...just like the June USDA planted acre numbers and crop condition numbers. |
Can we hit 185
