West of Mpls MN about 50 miles on Hwy 12 | How much over 300 bpa corn is IL going to raise this season to compensate for MN with less than "perfect" growing conditions this season?
Take a look at Clay SEIA rainfall chart in the reply above. I'll take too dry over too wet any day of the week...pretty hard screw up planting when it's a little on the dry side...and every acre gets planted...and then some. When there is no plant growing because it drowns out or the seed rotted and a plant never emerged, there is no plant growing to ever "catch up."
2024 is more similar to 1993 here IMO...I'll take 2004 and 2014 over 1993. Some interesting reading about the 1993 growing season and NASS reporting courtesy of NASS...copy/paste doesn't work very good with the linked report.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Reports,_Presentati...
INTRODUCTION
The 1993 growing season presented some of the most difficult challenges ever for forecasting United States crop production.
1993 EARLY SEASON WEATHER
The 1993 growing season was cool and moist throughout most of the Midwest States. Planting did not get off to an early start and it progressed much slower than normal, particularly in the States of Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Planting average for the U.S. was about 2 weeks behind normal in early May and still a week behind at the end of May.
At the time of the 1993 June Enumerative Survey interviews, 95 percent of the U.S. corn crop and 65 percent of the U.s. soybeans were planted.
The cool, damp early season weather turned to heavy rains and flooding in at least nine States (South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, and North Dakota). The North Dakota flooding was more isolated than in the other States. North Dakota will not be included in some of the comparisons in this paper since it has limited corn and soybean acreages and is not in the objective yield program for eitl1ercrop. These nine states produced 77 percent of the 1992 U.S. corn crop and 64 percent of the 1992 U.S. soybean crop.
At the time of the acreage report on June -30, there were- few questions about the numbers published •. However, there were concerns that some acreage intended to be planted had not and would
not be planted. Because of weather concerns in late June and July, NASS expanded its data collection for the August 1 survey.
The Weekly Weather Crop Survey, which monitors crop progress, also collects crop condition data from the panel of reporters. Although NASS would caution individuals to not put much confidence in these condition data which come from such a small panel (usually less than 100 reporters per State or about 12 or fewer per ASO) , weekly reports are closely followed •
AUGUST 1 YIELD FORECASTS
The August 1 data from the farmer surveys and objective yield observations pointed to an extreme mixture of yield potentials. Plant population and projected corn ears per acre were very high for most objective yield States. The States of Illinois and Indiana had tremendous increases in soybean plants per acre from a significant move to narrower row plantings. Iowa corn yield was forecast to be down 32 bushels from the record yield of 1992. However, Illinois and Indiana were both forecast at 140 bushels per acre, down only 9 and 7 bushels, respectively, from their 1992 records. The U.S. production forecasts of 7.42 billion bushels for corn and 1.90 billion bushels for soybeans were fairly well in line with the production levels of 1989-1991. Both figures were down from trend yield projections that the World Agricultural Outlook Board had made in July using June Acreage data and consideration of various trend and weather models.
Forecasted production levels were down 22 percent for corn and 13 percent for soybeans from 1992. After the Crop Production report was published and absorbed, there was an acceptance of those
levels given that normal weather might occur the rest of the growing season.
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER FORECASTS
There wasn't' anything normal about the 1993 season. There was a season long drought in the Southeast States that greatly reduced yield potentials and caused some abandonment of corn acreage. The drought conditions spread into Ohio which had started with very good yield prospects. The Ohio yield forecast went from 128 bushels per acre in August to 115 in September. The objective yield counts continued to support the very high ear counts and projected pods per acre from August. The pods count, however, were mixed between States. In 'the September 1 survey, Illinois and Indiana had pod counts 14 and 20 percent above their
previous record levels, respectively, due to the adequate moisture and high plant populations. However, Iowa and Minnesota had pod counts equal to and 13 percent lower, respectively, than their previous low counts during the 1988 drought year.
For the U.S. as a whole, the decrease in corn yield potential from October 1 to November 1 was larger than any experienced in the past 20 years. Table 9 presents the October to November comparison for both corn and soybeans. The 20 bushel per acre drop in Iowa was close to the absolute record for that state in any month.
As farmers completed their harvest, many found final yield turned out to be even lower than experienced with their early harvest. For example, the end-of-season corn yield estimate for Iowa, based on the December Agricultural Survey, was another 5 bushels lower than November. The corn yields in Iowa and Minnesota ended up lower than during the 1983 and 1988 drought years. Soybean yields were not as adversely affected, as for corn Illinois and Indiana did realize the high potential which had been present all season.
Is it too early to start worrying about frost/freeze? Even an "average" 2024 frost /freeze date will be waaay too early here...again.
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Can we hit 185
