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Farmer still holding 60% of corn?
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Boone & Crockett
Posted 7/2/2024 07:16 (#10795547 - in reply to #10795025)
Subject: RE: Farmer still holding 60% of corn?


Big Ben - 7/1/2024 19:08

Pitt - 7/1/2024 16:25

Exactly! what is coming. We could easily see a sideways corn price for the next 3-5 years with highs being $4.50 and lows $3.50. High prices cure high prices.




Yeah well, low prices cure low prices too, and it doesn’t take sub $4 to be low as the value of the dollar declines. We aren’t trading 2014 dollars anymore.








No, we are not. And that’s what makes it doubly painful. As long as we as producers are providing the bushels with no discomfort, things feel tight for an end user, they will continue to buy those bushels on sale. You’re way to young to remember the programs utilized going way, way back, to idle some land to help alleviate burdensome supply. Lots and lots of CRP haters on here, and that’s certainly understandable for young producers and livestock guys especially. But think where prices would be if all those acres were in production of some type. In addition, plenty of ethanol haters also. Can’t imagine the combination of no ethanol and no CRP, where we’d be. Inputs would thusly also be tanked. Seed corn companies would have to figure out how to sell $60 bag seed corn, Deere sell a new 200 hp tractor for under $100,000, Landlords would have to adjust their lifestyle to $80 cash rent for quality land in the best of the corn belt, half that, or less, on the fringes. You know, reminiscent of 1985. I worked with plenty of farmer clients back then that never realized it was the toughest of times in the heartland. But they had next to, or no debt. There’s plenty of those types around today, but I’d say on average they are at least ten years older than there brethren of forty years ago. They’re gonna be more tired, many with no farming heir to justify expansion.May be backyarditis, but hard for me to get bullish on grain prices with a full tank of moisture, another inch overnight, more on the way, with moderate temps for middle of July predicted. I can drive from my place 10 miles south of Minnesota border, south to the Missouri border, and things on average look exceedingly well. I can absolutely forsee a 90’s situation establishing itself for prices. Guys that continue to bet on the come bidding up cash rents will get gutted, deservedly so. An early frost in the corn belt would really be a major market mover this year, because of the vast acres that are susceptible. IMO, that’s the event that would be necessary to move the needle in a significant manner, and clear out the pipeline of burdensome supply. Rant over, flame away.

Edited by Boone & Crockett 7/2/2024 07:48
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