If he was a farmer and was intending on producing the grain in the next year and he was "hedging" his production I don't think anyone would think him a fool at all. He would probably be pretty smart, even if if turned out he was wrong about the market. Good decisions in farming are based on probabilities, very few on absolutes. He instead s a speculator speculating on the price and he has the right to do so. I think what puts people off is his overwhelming belief in his ability to be absolutely right with no possibility of being wrong. There are a precious few that can make money speculating long term in commodities (and they probably are not talking) and a really big bunch that loose a little over the long run and a few that loose a lot. Even seasoned speculators making money most likely have a success ratio of 55 or 60%. Ag trader seems 100% positive that he is right. That doesn't add to his credibility to anyone who has ever actually taken a position in the market.

Maybe he is the next Messiah in commodity trading, but he kind of talks like a "big hat no cattle" cattleman. Time will tell.

John