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| The crush came in at 162.4 slightly below expectations but a good number.
No. 1 consideration, we are trading recession & true fundamentals can take a back seat.
No. 2 we are entering a time frame when seasonal weakness can occur.
No. 3 In reviewing Chinese numbers last night, and am not yet done, I would not be suprised to see them a net importer of corn in 2010.
No. 4 My ideas in selling July corn are not for the long pull. We will have plenty of corn for the carryout this year, the question is year 2009. My corn trade may last from one hour to one month...depends upon my mental stamina & playing the cards I am dealt.
If these markets have a wide swinging reaction, which can happen this time of the year and in view of the markets being loaded with speculators, I view the following points as support.
This is the best thing to happen for these markets at this time, lower prices increase demand.
Additionally, think about this, by 2009 & 2010 the ethanol distribution system should have improved markedly.
Nov beans: 11.55 area, 11.05 area worst case 10.60
Dec corn: 4.80 area, 4.60 area & worst case 4.45
Note the soybean crushing margin. In most cases the crush margin exceeds normal seasonal values. Not bearish-but can't trade off that today.
Spring wheat values above bean prices is a first in my memory....haven't checked way back, but think so.
Conserve Cash, remain positive, don't fall in love with your inventory-think cold facts, turn on CNBC for comic relief and mentally brace yourselves for a little ride. It may not happen here, but it is not a time for snap decisions. We might recover nicely...it just is CAUTION TIME- remember, most generally, in down moves the markets frequently open higher...and in up moves, they frequently open lower.
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Early Stuff.
