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| With age, becomes a great respect for risk. Futures are usually a young person game. But, recognizing risk will dictate whether you become an old trader or a car wash employee.
Open Interest declined on Friday & has a lot of folks convinced it represents a top.
Maybe.
The Chinese markets have been closed. A lot of international economic & a general wall of worry.
It all depends upon your perspective. If you want to hit the exact high, or if you are a day trader.....except I know few people who actually hit a high. There is a natural emotion in a bull market to take profit or to try and anticipate the high....same in a down market....a bull market needs sellers....a bear market needs buyers.
Wheat and bean stocks are low, the rate of corn disappearance has accelerated above previous expectations. Too many unknowns yet.
In checking a variety of broker websites...folks are nervous & this is good. One of them I watch, they've been afraid of this market since august of last year....still afraid....small traders are short and in some cases keep selling....
These are historic times, no one knows. I ask myself, as we approach the opening of navigation, WHAT IF?, the basis then turns red hot on chgo wheat?
I still review HIGH RISK...but the purchase of corn & beans on breaks-if you cannot handle a $1.50 ride in this market, a person should not be trading it.
If a producer & have to sell....you have the opporunity...
Just received a well-written long term private weather report...dry....I take long term forecasts with a grain of salt...but am impressed with this one. If i can figure out a way to not violate their terms I will post part of it.
Have been working on livestock numbers & am starting to wonder....not much evidence yet of disorder...a lot of pork around, the question is: are beef and hog producers building too many expectations for the future too early??? As I go back thru the 72-77 period...the reaction to high prices was slow.
Going to ignore the market & leave distant stops in place. Just received a new Liam Neeson & Jon Voight movie script...going to read it this afternoon, not as much risk as wheat...still risky, but like energizer batteries....may get a little check every quarter for a long, long time. Wheat is a lump sum deal....one way or the other.
Edited by SeniorCitizen 2/11/2008 12:16
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A Handicap of Age.
